Landslide election

Australian politics was transformed by last weekend’s Federal election. Against all expectations, the Australian Labor Party returned to power with an increased majority, a higher primary vote, and a decimated opposition. Vote counting is still underway, and some of the most tightly contested seats may take another week to declare.

However, one thing is clear. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has defied the so-called "incumbency curse" to be re-elected Australia's prime minister in what can only be called a landslide. Heading into the election, the current Government had a majority of one seat. On current projections, Labor will finish with more than 90 seats in the Lower House, at least 14 more than the 76 seats required to secure a majority Government.

The Coalition opposition will struggle to finish with more than 40 seats in the Lower House. Furthermore, the current opposition leader, Peter Dutton, has lost his seat. This is the first time in Australian history that an opposition leader has lost their seat in an election. Equally, this is the Coalition’s smallest caucus since Federation. The state of Tasmania now contains only Labor MPs (and one longtime independent), while most capital cities have at best one or two Coalition MPs in the metropolitan area (Adelaide and Brisbane have none). 

Since WWII, only four incumbent Governments have increased their primary vote during an Australian federal election, but none at the level of the current Government, and none have increased their majority. Albanese becomes the first prime minister to win back-to-back elections in over 20 years. It’s all too easy to forget that Australia churned through nine prime ministers during this period. Before that, we'd experienced 12 years of relative stability under John Howard.

The result is even more extraordinary given how badly the Government was trailing the opposition in opinion polls four months ago. In January, the polls predicted a resounding win for the opposition, with the opposition leader beating Albanese as preferred Prime Minister. Australia looked set to follow the rest of the world and back a more conservative, right-wing Government. Two factors have swung the vote in favour of the Labour Party.

First, Donald Trump’s global trade tariff war has boosted the fortunes of incumbent parties as voters seek stability during a time of growing uncertainty. Just two weeks ago, the incumbent Canadian Government was returned to power after trailing badly in the polls earlier this year. In more recent months the nation has endured sustained rhetorical attacks by the American president and been subject to rising tariffs. In response, Canadian voters rallied behind the flag and rejected the opposition's strongman style of divisive politics.

Here at home, Dutton also tried playing the strong man card. He occasionally mimicked Trump's style, adopted elements of his conservative policies and provoked regular culture war debates. For much of 2024 and the early months of this year, this approach appeared to be a winning strategy. Support for Dutton and the Coalition grew steadily stronger in the polls. 

That is, until Trump’s chaotic first one hundred days in power progressively turned Australians against him in record numbers. By late April, polls reported more than 70 percent were concerned Donald Trump would make them worse off financially this year. As a result, once tarred with the Trump brush, Dutton struggled to shake it.

Second, the Coalition has run an extraordinarily complacent and often dysfunctional election campaign. Spokespeople regularly contradicted their leader, sometimes within hours of a policy announcement. More than one policy was dropped or amended on the fly, while others lacked substance when scrutinised by the media. The apparent lack of preparation caught many by surprise.

Whether you support Labor or not, the possibility of a stable Government and stable leadership for the first time in two decades offers plenty of potential. As the Sydney Morning Herald stated a week or so ago, Albanese is the better option for Prime Minister, but only if he starts doing something bold with his mandate.

I couldn’t agree more. We’ve had five years of “small target” politics where both sides of the house have played it safe. The reforming zeal of the Hawke/Keating years, and even the tax reforming initiatives of the Howard Government, are long overdue. Australia desperately needs tax reform, more efficient Government and budget discipline that brings its Federal budget back into sustained surplus. Let’s see what happens next.

Update: 20 May

Vote counting has finally concluded. Labor secured 93 seats, giving a 38 seat majority in the lower house. The Liberal National coalition finished with 43 seats. Another 12 seats went to independent candidates and The Greens. In the upper seats, Labor only needs the support of The Greens to pass legislation in the Senate.