Seeking a new direction

Is Australia's next coronavirus crisis just around the corner? A battle with public complacency looks like it's become the new front line. This handy graph encapsulates the challenge ahead.

The Sydney Morning Herald noted today that mobility data from Apple shows increasing numbers of people searching for directions by road, foot and public transport, compared to the first weeks of Australia's strict "stay at home" instructions.

At the start of April, weekday searches for road directions in Sydney averaged about 54 per cent of the normal baseline level. The week after Easter it averaged about 61 per cent and last week it was averaging 64.2 per cent, with a spike on Thursday of 69.9 per cent amid a week of sunshine and warm temperatures. That was the highest number since March 20.

Sadly the lack of social distancing etiquette has grown worse at our local supermarket. Garry and I dropped in on Friday evening to grab a few supplies. The first thing we noticed was the staff had given up counting shoppers entering the store. Coles had previously announced it was limiting store patronage to ensure social distancing was maintained. For the last ten days, the number of shoppers has been religiously counted in and out of the store.

On Friday the building was heaving with people. Dozens were queuing to use the checkouts. Aisles were crowded. People were standing around chatting. Few appeared to be making any attempt to physically separate themselves from others.

We have a young demographic in our area including a lot of international students. As a result, it's tempting to stereotype the crowd. I certainly considered myself all but bulletproof at a younger age. How do you help others truly comprehend the economic sacrifice and financial hardship made by millions to ensure their health? I don't envy our Government.

Four more weeks

It’s official. Australians are in for another four weeks of partial lockdown. The continued restrictions reflect growing confidence that the nation is successfully containing COVID-19. The latest graph shows an increasingly stable, and reassuringly low, level of new cases being reported daily (currently averaging below 50 new cases per day).

Some commentators are going so far as to suggest we’re on track for domestic elimination of the virus. Personally, I think that’s wishful thinking. I went to the supermarket last night. The experience was incredibly disappointing. At least a third of shoppers demonstrated absolutely no interest in practising social distancing. This was in stark contrast to active avoidance behaviours I’d witnessed only weeks ago.

This shopping experience leaves me in no doubt that we’ll continue to see sporadic outbreaks. Too many people seem to have very little sense of just how virulent this virus is. I’ve read several stories where positively diagnosed people believe that their only credible infection source was the supermarket.

These reports include an elderly Queensland man who later died. His only reported activity outside the home was a single trip to the supermarket. Today I read about a young UK journalist who, over a 14 day period, only left his home to visit the supermarket. He described his subsequent illness as far more life-threatening than the flu. His experience included a late-night paramedic call out that left him genuinely fearing for his life.

UPDATE: 24 April

Australia recorded only four new cases of coronavirus in the 24 hours to 4pm on Wednesday. This included two in NSW and each in South Australia and Tasmania. The last time new cases were reported in single digits was 8 March.

Bending the curve

Some encouraging COVID-19 graphs have been published today. In NSW, there were 49 new confirmed cases in the 24 hours to 8pm on April 9. While that was 11 more cases than the previous 24 hours, the number of tests increased by more than 500. It's encouraging that higher test rates aren't finding proportionately more cases at this early stage.

On a separate note, NSW Police can now issue a $5000 on-the-spot fine for spitting or coughing on health workers or police officers. These new powers were introduced after gutless attacks on front line workers. Pharmacists, supermarket managers and police officers have all been spat on by disgruntled people in recent days.

Likewise, anyone caught without a good reason for being away from home is also subject to a $1000 fine. On Thursday NSW Police handed out 45 fines for breaching the Public Health Act. Several people have now received multiple fines. One of those fines was given to NSW Arts Minister Don Harwin who was caught sneaking off to his holiday home up the coast.

Mission impossible

I got up early to visit the Supermarket. Oh, the joy of joys! We finally have some basic essentials. I never thought I’d be so happy to see a bag of plain flour again.

My raid was carefully planned the night before. Garry helpfully wrote me a shopping list as I was off to bed.  His parting words were, "Here's a list just in case you wake up early and want to go for a walk..."  I got the message.

Off the chart

I honesty thought weeks of unrelenting news headlines had finally lost their ability to shock me. That is until the New York Times published the following graph today.

A staggering 6.6 million people applied for unemployment benefits in the USA last week. In just two weeks, the Coronavirus pandemic has left nearly 10 million Americans out of work, more than in the worst months of the last recession. The data is literally “off the chart”.

It’s simply beyond comprehension. What normally takes months or quarters to happen in a recession is happening in a matter of weeks. I sincerely hope that a few months from now, these numbers are reversing just as dramatically.

UPDATE: 10 April

Numbers released on Thursday by the world's largest economy showed that 6.6 million American workers applied for unemployment benefits last week, on top of more than 10 million in the two weeks before that. That amounts to about 1 in 10 US workers losing their jobs in less than a month. This is the biggest and fastest pile-up of job losses since record-keeping began in 1948. California alone has averaged more than one million jobless claims each week.