COVID-free no more!

As 2021 comes to an end it’s a shock to see daily COVID cases in the state of New South Wales hitting a new record high of 21,151 today. Two weeks' vacation in the outback is suddenly looking very prescient indeed!

 
According to NSW Health, more than 14 percent of tests processed in the 24 hours to 8pm on Thursday were positive, indicating a significant rate of cases undetected in the community.

I’ve already booked my booster shot after we arrive back in Sydney. It’s hard to believe that as little as six months ago we were all freaking out over one or two isolated cases. The new normal has certainly changed. Party safely tonight everyone!

The Lucky Country

Today marks one year since Australia recorded its first COVID-19 cases. Victoria recorded its first COVID-19 case on January 25, 2020 – a man in his 50s who tested positive for the virus after arriving in Melbourne on a flight from Guangzhou in China on January 19, 2019.

By the end of that day a further three cases had been confirmed in New South Wales, after two passengers flew from the Chinese city of Wuhan and a third from Shenzhen. One year later, here in Australia (and New Zealand), our pandemic experience looks vastly different from that of most other countries. The contrast is such that many of you reading this post will find it hard to comprehend.

Perhaps the starkest difference is the simple fact that there is currently no community transmission of the virus anywhere in Australia. The same goes for New Zealand. The only new cases being reported are coming from overseas travellers in quarantine. As of today, since February 2020, Australia has reported a total of 28,761 confirmed cases and 909 deaths. Yes – you read that correctly – these are "whole of pandemic" statistics. Not daily, weekly or monthly numbers.

Currently, you need a special Government permit to enter the country (and likewise to leave our shores if you’re a citizen or permanent resident). Upon arrival, you're transferred to a specially designated hotel for 14-days of mandatory quarantine. To ensure the quarantine system isn’t overwhelmed international arrivals are limited to around 3000 people weekly.

To date, these measures have stopped the spread of COVID-19, including more infectious variants currently spreading globally. However, the system hasn't always been totally foolproof. Since June last year the states of Victoria (with its capital city of Melbourne), New South Wales (Sydney), South Australia (Adelaide) and Queensland (Brisbane) have all experienced virus outbreaks whose origins traced back to hotel quarantine workers.

All but one of these outbreaks were brought under control within weeks. The most devastating occurred in Melbourne last June. Thousands were infected and hundreds died before community transmission was finally eradicated. This result was achieved by a comprehensive lockdown lasting almost three months. At the time it was considered the most draconian undertaken anywhere in the world. The UK’s latest lockdown is now operating with a similar level of constraint.

The nation's most recent COVID-19 outbreak occurred in Brisbane. A hotel cleaner infected six people with the new UK variant before the outbreak was brought under control. Here in Sydney, we’ve successfully controlled an outbreak that began in the city’s Northern Beaches suburbs three weeks before Christmas. As of today, New South Wales has recorded eight straight days without a locally transmitted case, Queensland has reached 14 days, and Victoria has made it 19 straight days without a new case.

Australia’s remarkable results have come at a considerable short-term cost to our civil liberties and economic wellbeing. Entire industries including international student education, tourism and aviation have all been devastated. Likewise, current border restrictions have left more than 38,000 Australians stranded overseas unable to return for many months to come.

However, despite these constraints, Australia’s economy is rebounding quickly. With unprecedented economic support from the federal government, around 90 per cent of the 1.3 million Australians who lost their jobs or saw work hours reduced to zero early in the pandemic are now back at work. Last month official unemployment fell from 6.8 to 6.6 per cent. These figures are still well above pre-COVID levels but show the nation is faring better than other OECD nations.

The latest figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics also show GDP grew 3.3 per cent in the September quarter, but declined 3.8 per cent in the year to September 2020. However, the annual downturn is dominated by a 7 per cent economic contraction in the three months through June when the first national lockdown was in full swing. Analysts expect the December quarter just ended will continue reporting steady GDP growth and stable unemployment.

Looking ahead, the country will kick off a national vaccination program in late-February.  The population has been split into four groups. The first two consist of people at greatest risk, the latter two covers the rest of the population. Garry and I are in the third group. At our age, we're considered a little more vulnerable than the general population.

The effectiveness of Australia’s national border closure has been brought into stark relief in recent weeks by the experience of arrivals for the Australia Open tennis tournament. The Victorian Government elected to proceed with the Grand Slam event despite strong reservations by health authorities and lockdown traumatised Melbournian residents.

Last week 17 charter flights arrived in Melbourne carrying hundreds of players, partners and officials. Everyone was transferred into mandatory 14-day hotel quarantine. Since then ten people have tested positive. This includes rising Spanish star Paula Badosa who is one of 72 players confined to their rooms after several passengers on their aircraft tested positive upon arrival. Badosa was a very vocal critic of Australia’s hard quarantine procedure for “close contacts” like herself. However, she tested positive seven days into quarantine and has since apologised for her stance.

Novak Djokovic, the world’s No.1 men’s player, has also been a vocal critic. Last week he issued a fanciful wish-list for the 72 players stuck in hard quarantine. His proposals were poorly received by most Australians. Even more so given his defiant stance last year when he hosted a European tournament with poor health control protocols. The tournament subsequently became a virus super-spreading event.

No doubt many of you reading this post will struggle to comprehend how different life feels in Australia. Our headlines aren’t dominated by daily death tolls, overwhelmed hospitals and personal hardship. Instead, we’re all debating the merits of Australian player Bernard Tomic’s girlfriend, Vanessa Sierra, who recently took to social media to protest her hotel quarantine conditions.

In a Twitter tirade, she bitterly complained that "This is the worst part of quarantine: I don't wash my own hair. I've never washed my own hair. It's just not something that I do. I normally have hairdressers that do it twice a week for me, so this is the situation that we're dealing with."

All we can say to Vanessa is simply this. You’re washing your own hair so that Australia can continue reporting 28,761 confirmed cases and only 909 tragic deaths since February 2020. It’s a small price to pay when saving lives.

UPDATE: 31 January

West Australia reported its first case of community transmission in almost ten months today. A security guard working in a Perth quarantine hotel has tested positive for Coronavirus. The infected man may have been symphonic since Australia Day. Furthermore, he moonlights as a share ride driver when he’s not working as a security guard. In response to this positive test, the entire Perth metropolitan area has been sent into total lockdown for the next five days.

UPDATE: 3 February

West Australia has confirmed that the infected security guard is carrying the more virulent UK strain. This strain first appeared three months ago and is rapidly spreading globally. As of yesterday, West Australia had recorded no additional local cases. It looks increasingly likely the state may have dodged a bullet with this latest quarantine outbreak.

The second wave

2020 is undoubtedly turning into a year none of us will ever forget. With three months remaining the flood of extraordinary news headlines continues unabated. Since I last posted about the global COVID-19 pandemic so much has happened here in Australia and internationally.

Less than three weeks after my last post on 6 June things took a nasty turn in Australia. In late June, the Victorian State Government announced a re-tightening of social distancing restrictions after an unexplained spike in community transmitted cases. It soon emerged that disease prevention protocols had failed within the state’s hotel quarantine program for returning international travellers. Hotel staff and security personnel at two hotels had contracted COVID-19 and subsequently taken it out in the broader community.

Infected people then began travelling interstate triggering new outbreak clusters in New South Wales and Queensland. In Victoria, the situation deteriorated rapidly. As the graph published here shows positive tests, hospitalisation and COVID-related deaths began climbing to levels previously unseen in Australia. While these statistics are still remarkably low by global standards, the pandemic has resulted in this nation's worst recession since the Great Depression.

In response to Victoria's second wave, the nation experienced another soul-numbing round of unprecedented headlines. First, international flights to Melbourne ceased and its hotel quarantine program was suspended. Australia's second-largest city was effectively cut off from the rest of the world.

Then, on 8 July, the Victorian and NSW interstate border closed for the first time in more than a century. Queensland subsequently closed its border with NSW just weeks after finally reopening for the first time in four months. This meant that those of us living in Sydney found ourselves constrained within our home state's borders for the first time in living memory.

On 7 July, after recording 191 new cases, the Victorian Government announced that metropolitan Melbourne would re-start lockdown restrictions for a minimum of six weeks. Four weeks later these restrictions were extended across the entire state of Victoria.

The state's lockdown restrictions were tightened again in August to include a night curfew in Melbourne. Non-essential businesses were forced to close and residents were largely confined to their homes. Those venturing out for exercise or grocery shopping were restricted to travelling within a zone that extended no more than 5km from their home. In Sydney, Victorian travellers arriving by air were also forced into compulsory quarantine for the first time.

The death toll in Victoria rose rapidly reaching 805 people as of yesterday. Positive infections passed 20,000 recorded cases. Prior to the second wave, Australia's national death toll has stalled at a remarkably low 104 people.

Restrictions finally began to ease in Victoria in late-September as new case numbers dropped into the low teens. Clusters that had broken out in NSW were also brought under control thanks to new restrictions and world-class contact tracing. As of today, NSW has reported eight consecutive days with zero community transmission. In Sydney, daily life is slowly starting to feel normal again.

International travel remains effectively banned in Australia. Residents cannot leave the country without a permit that’s often difficult to obtain and those who return are transferred into compulsory quarantine for 14 days at their own expense. The intake of international travellers is also capped at 4000 people per week.

These restrictions are expected to remain in place until at least March or April next year. As a result, Garry and I have made new plans for our Summer vacation. We'll be staying within our home state and travelling up the North Coast for two weeks on Boxing Day.

We’ve booked ourselves into a corner suite at the waterfront Ramada Hotel in Ballina for a week. We last stayed there in 2016 while on business and thoroughly enjoyed the experience. We’ll then make our way back down to Sydney stopping for several days in a series of scenic spots. Our itinerary includes the picturesque waterfalls at Dorrigo National Park, Harrington and Port Stephens.

Internationally, the news remains grim. The USA, Europe and India saw positive cases rise again as initial lockdown restrictions were eased in June. In the UK daily cases now exceed those reported during the pandemics initial outbreak. In the USA more than 200,000 people have died and more than 7 million infected. Globally the death toll has soared past 1 million souls.

Then, just when we thought we’d seen the last of COVID's stunning headlines, the President of the United States and the First Lady were diagnosed with COVID-19 yesterday. The President’s infection comes less than a month before the US Presidential Election. Donald Trump and his wife, Melania, are now under quarantine for several weeks.

It’s almost impossible to overstate the impact this has on his re-election campaign. Trump was already behind in national polls and actively redirecting the daily narrative away from his handling of the pandemic. Now he and many of his key campaign operatives are unable to venture beyond their homes. October surprises really don't get any bigger than this.

In public, Trump has downplayed the pandemic's seriousness. He’s ignored social distancing measures on numerous occasions and disregarded guidelines from top health advisors. Once again, this persistent virus has demonstrated how incredibly virulent it really is. It’ll be interesting to see how this week’s events affect the election on 3 November.

Free at last

Something extraordinary is unfolding in the state of New South Wales (NSW). The State Government has been progressively easing social distancing restrictions since 15 May. It looks increasingly likely they've timed the unwinding of our lockdown remarkably well.

According to today's newspaper, NSW has recorded zero locally-acquired coronavirus infections for a tenth day; and no new imported cases in the past 24 hours. Since May 27, the only infections reported in the state have been associated with overseas travellers under hotel quarantine.

Currently, every person entering the state from overseas is immediately transferred into a Government-funded mandatory quarantine facility. These are normally specially designated hotels and serviced apartments around Sydney.

These facilities are closely monitored. We have one near our apartment. Outside the building's main lobby is a permanent police presence while private security guards monitor the perimeter of the grounds. At first, the quarantine restrictions seemed rather harsh. However, today's news highlights how effectively they've contained new outbreaks of COVID-19. Two months ago nobody dared imagined NSW might find itself completely virus-free by mid-June.

New Zealand is currently well ahead of Australia. It's recorded no new COVID-19 cases for more than 14 days. The last person known to have contracted the virus domestically from an unknown source was diagnosed on 29 April and remained in quarantine until 18 May. Currently, it only has one active and confirmed case being monitored, an anonymous woman in Auckland who returned with the illness from overseas.

Scientists hope to declare New Zealand virus-free by 25 June i.e. 28 days of no new locally transmitted infections. This timeframe is the equivalent of two standard infection cycles. Authorities are increasingly optimistic that a trans-Tasman travel bubble could soon follow. This would allow Australians and New Zealanders to travel freely between both nations and provide a much-needed boost for the tourism and hospitality sectors of both nations.

UPDATE: 8 June 
New Zealand's last remaining virus patient has officially recovered. This means there are no active cases in the country.

UPDATE: 12 June
After a clear run for more than two weeks, a locally-acquired infection was reported in NSW today.  It's still out there!

Two weeks in March

It's been six months now since COVID-19 started appearing in the news.  Then two months ago the Government imposed a national lock-down that saw vast chunks of the Australian economy shut down.  This brief recap in today's newspaper neatly captures the two weeks in March when our world dramatically changed. It's hard to believe all of this happened just two months ago:

On March 12, the government announced its first stimulus package: a $17.6-billion cash handout to pensioners and a boost for business but, as COVID-19 took hold, it was immediately apparent more would be needed.

On March 13, Prime Minister Scott Morrison announced a restriction on gatherings of more than 500 people from March 16, putting an end to live football and concerts. On March 19, Australia’s borders were declared shut, bringing migration and tourism to a dramatic halt.

On March 22, the Prime Minister announced a second $66-billion support package, including a $550 per fortnight supplement to the jobless payment, early access to super and a cash-flow boost for small business.

But, just two days later, National Cabinet met to decide a list of further shutdowns to include pubs, restaurants, cafes, gyms and beauty salons.

Then, having already designed and costed almost $100 billion worth of policies, Treasury was sent back to the drawing board; this time to design and cost a wage subsidy scheme to cover the wage bill of all industries affected by large declines in revenue as a result of virus shutdowns. It was given just four days to create and cost this new policy.

On March 30, the government’s JobKeeper program was announced.  It initially estimated the program would cost $130-billion. However, the economic impact has proven less severe than anticipated.  Instead of 6 million workers receiving the $1500 per fortnight payment through their employer, Treasury now estimates 3.5 million employees will get it.  As a result, the JobKeeper program now looks set to cost taxpayers just $70 billion – still ranking it among the biggest government programs ever.

2020 is rapidly becoming one for the history books.

Bursting your bubble

The news from Australia is still unfolding with a daily dose of highs and lows.  Yesterday NSW recorded no new COVID-19 cases for the first time since February 29. The same result was reported in Queensland.  This evening the national toll of reported cases is sitting at 6980. These numbers surpass even the most optimistic of forecasts published less than two months ago.

Incredibly, the nation’s COVID-19 death toll currently sits at 98. It had been stable with one less victim for almost a week.  Sadly, another passenger from the deadly Ruby Princess cruise ship pass away overnight.  Elsewhere, health care officials are battling persistent coronavirus clusters in northwest Tasmania, a Sydney nursing home and a Melbourne abattoir.

This week Australia begins its first tentative steps towards winding back its lockdown restrictions.  The Government has announced a three-step plan for putting us back on the road to recovery. While individual states will determine their own timeline through each step, their collective goal is to have all steps in place nation-wide by mid-July.

Step 1 will focus on carefully reopening the economy, and giving Australians opportunities to return to work and social activities. This includes gatherings of up to 10 people, up to 5 visitors in the family home and some local and regional travel. NSW and the city of Sydney are preparing to unwind its first tranche of stage one restrictions on Friday. For example, several major retail chains are reopening and restaurants can offer seating for up to ten diners.

Step 2 builds on step 1 with gatherings of up to 20. More businesses will be permitted to reopen including gyms, beauty services and entertainment venues such as galleries and cinemas.

The final step will see a transition to COVID safe ways of living and working, with gatherings of up to 100 people. Arrangements under step 3 will be the ‘new normal’ while the virus remains a threat. However, international travel and mass gatherings over 100 people will remain restricted until further notice.

Chief Medical Officer Brendan Murphy told a senate inquiry today that it’s "inevitable" Australia will have more coronavirus outbreaks as restrictions on movement ease, but the health system is well prepared. However, with two-thirds of COVID-19 cases in Australia acquired overseas, he believes, international borders will have to remain closed.  Some commentators suggest it’ll be sometime in 2021 before Australian are free to travel overseas again.

The new normal still looks rather terrifying. The Commonwealth Bank, Australia’s largest bank, has released modelling showing house prices could fall by almost a third by the end of 2022 under a prolonged economic slump, as it braces for a sharp rise in soured loans caused by the coronavirus.

Tomorrow the Australian Bureau of Statistics will release its April employment report. All expectations are for the largest ever increase in the number of people out of work. The jobless rate is likely to soar through 7 per cent or higher.

Analysts are tipping anywhere between 400,000 and 650,000 people to have become unemployed in a single month. The previous monthly record, of 65,400 jobs lost in October 1982 during that year's deep recession, will be dwarfed by the April result.

The Government is also facing the largest budget deficit in Australian fiscal history. Deloitte Access Economics predicts it could reach $143 billion this year and $131.6 billion in 2020-21 as the economy slumps due to measures aimed at stopping the pandemic's spread.  The hard work has only just begun.

UPDATE: 15 May
Australia has suffered its single largest monthly fall in the number of people holding a job, with a record 594,000 drop in the number of workers during April.

Figures released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics yesterday showed the unemployment rate spiking a full percentage point to 6.2 per cent last month. 

The participation rate, which measures the number of people in work and also those looking for it, fell 2.4 percentage points. This also helped to keep a lid on the overall jobless rate.

The number of officially unemployed people jumped by 104,500 to more than 823,300. The previous largest increase in unemployment in a single month was 65,400 in October 1982 during that year's recession. The jobless rate peaked at 10.5 per cent the following year.

It's the largest number of people out of work since September 1994. The bureau only started measuring the jobs market on a monthly basis in 1978.

Seeking a new direction

Is Australia's next coronavirus crisis just around the corner? A battle with public complacency looks like it's become the new front line. This handy graph encapsulates the challenge ahead.

The Sydney Morning Herald noted today that mobility data from Apple shows increasing numbers of people searching for directions by road, foot and public transport, compared to the first weeks of Australia's strict "stay at home" instructions.

At the start of April, weekday searches for road directions in Sydney averaged about 54 per cent of the normal baseline level. The week after Easter it averaged about 61 per cent and last week it was averaging 64.2 per cent, with a spike on Thursday of 69.9 per cent amid a week of sunshine and warm temperatures. That was the highest number since March 20.

Sadly the lack of social distancing etiquette has grown worse at our local supermarket. Garry and I dropped in on Friday evening to grab a few supplies. The first thing we noticed was the staff had given up counting shoppers entering the store. Coles had previously announced it was limiting store patronage to ensure social distancing was maintained. For the last ten days, the number of shoppers has been religiously counted in and out of the store.

On Friday the building was heaving with people. Dozens were queuing to use the checkouts. Aisles were crowded. People were standing around chatting. Few appeared to be making any attempt to physically separate themselves from others.

We have a young demographic in our area including a lot of international students. As a result, it's tempting to stereotype the crowd. I certainly considered myself all but bulletproof at a younger age. How do you help others truly comprehend the economic sacrifice and financial hardship made by millions to ensure their health? I don't envy our Government.

Four more weeks

It’s official. Australians are in for another four weeks of partial lockdown. The continued restrictions reflect growing confidence that the nation is successfully containing COVID-19. The latest graph shows an increasingly stable, and reassuringly low, level of new cases being reported daily (currently averaging below 50 new cases per day).

Some commentators are going so far as to suggest we’re on track for domestic elimination of the virus. Personally, I think that’s wishful thinking. I went to the supermarket last night. The experience was incredibly disappointing. At least a third of shoppers demonstrated absolutely no interest in practising social distancing. This was in stark contrast to active avoidance behaviours I’d witnessed only weeks ago.

This shopping experience leaves me in no doubt that we’ll continue to see sporadic outbreaks. Too many people seem to have very little sense of just how virulent this virus is. I’ve read several stories where positively diagnosed people believe that their only credible infection source was the supermarket.

These reports include an elderly Queensland man who later died. His only reported activity outside the home was a single trip to the supermarket. Today I read about a young UK journalist who, over a 14 day period, only left his home to visit the supermarket. He described his subsequent illness as far more life-threatening than the flu. His experience included a late-night paramedic call out that left him genuinely fearing for his life.

UPDATE: 24 April

Australia recorded only four new cases of coronavirus in the 24 hours to 4pm on Wednesday. This included two in NSW and one each in South Australia and Tasmania. The last time new cases were reported in single digits was 8 March.

Bending the curve

Some encouraging COVID-19 graphs have been published today. In NSW, there were 49 new confirmed cases in the 24 hours to 8pm on April 9. While that was 11 more cases than the previous 24 hours, the number of tests increased by more than 500. It's encouraging that higher test rates aren't finding proportionately more cases at this early stage.

On a separate note, NSW Police can now issue a $5000 on-the-spot fine for spitting or coughing on health workers or police officers. These new powers were introduced after gutless attacks on front line workers. Pharmacists, supermarket managers and police officers have all been spat on by disgruntled people in recent days.

Likewise, anyone caught without a good reason for being away from home is also subject to a $1000 fine. On Thursday NSW Police handed out 45 fines for breaching the Public Health Act. Several people have now received multiple fines. One of those fines was given to NSW Arts Minister Don Harwin who was caught sneaking off to his holiday home up the coast.

Mission impossible

I got up early to visit the Supermarket. Oh, the joy of joys! We finally have some basic essentials. I never thought I’d be so happy to see a bag of plain flour again.

My raid was carefully planned the night before. Garry helpfully wrote me a shopping list as I was off to bed.  His parting words were, "Here's a list just in case you wake up early and want to go for a walk..."  I got the message.

Off the chart

I honesty thought weeks of unrelenting news headlines had finally lost their ability to shock me. That is until the New York Times published the following graph today.

A staggering 6.6 million people applied for unemployment benefits in the USA last week. In just two weeks, the Coronavirus pandemic has left nearly 10 million Americans out of work, more than in the worst months of the last recession. The data is literally “off the chart”.

It’s simply beyond comprehension. What normally takes months or quarters to happen in a recession is happening in a matter of weeks. I sincerely hope that a few months from now, these numbers are reversing just as dramatically.

UPDATE: 10 April

Numbers released on Thursday by the world's largest economy showed that 6.6 million American workers applied for unemployment benefits last week, on top of more than 10 million in the two weeks before that. That amounts to about 1 in 10 US workers losing their jobs in less than a month. This is the biggest and fastest pile-up of job losses since record-keeping began in 1948. California alone has averaged more than one million jobless claims each week.

$320 billion and counting

It’s been another extraordinary news day in Australia. Earlier today the Federal Government announced the nation’s largest-ever social security program. The program, worth $130 billion, will subsidise the wages of up to 6 million Australian for the next six months.

To put this figure in perspective, the Government will spend an amount equivalent to 20% of its annual budget between March and September on this one package. It’ll reach almost one in four Australians, and represents direct Government support for 50% of the nation’s labour force.

It’s the third stimulus package announced by the Government in as many weeks. To date, these announcements have totalled more than $320 billion in funding. During the Global Financial Crisis the Federal Government engaged in a rather “modest” $54 billion of stimulus spending.

Rumour has it the Government rushed to roll out wage subsidies after Australia’s unemployed ranks swelled by a million people last week. Anecdotal evidence suggests employers were encouraged to let staff go rapidly after generous unemployment benefits were announced ten days ago.

In more good news today, the increase in new Coronavirus cases appears to be slowing. Only 127 new cases have been confirmed in New South Wales since 8pm Sunday, taking the State’s total number to 1918.

This result comes after 174 new cases were announced on Sunday (from Saturday's numbers), and 212 the day before. NSW currently has the nation’s highest number of confirmed cases. This includes 26 patients in intensive care units, 13 of which are on ventilators. Mercifully, to date, only 18 deaths have been recorded nationwide.

With each passing day, the Coronavirus crisis is turning more and more of the world as we know it on its head.

Grounded!

As a regular traveller for business and pleasure, I've been watching the aviation sector's response to COVID-19 with interest. Some recent "never thought I'd see that" moments include:

1. Singapore Airlines is now flying 9 planes (out of 147 in its fleet).
2. Qantas now flies the giant A380 nonstop from Darwin to London. Yes - Darwin.
3. The only scheduled commercial flight between Australia and North America next week will be one daily United Airlines’ Boeing 787 between Sydney and San Francisco.
4. Air New Zealand now flies three times a week between Sydney and Auckland (normally its busiest international route) instead of 5 times a day.

This is the stuff of science fiction...

UPDATE: 9 April

Another extraordinary news headline tonight. Virgin Australia, Australia's second-largest airline, has suspended all domestic flights except for one daily Sydney to Melbourne return service. The flight will run daily except for on Saturdays.

To put this announcement in perspective, prior to the COVID-19 crisis, the Sydney to Melbourne route was the world's third busiest scheduled service. More than 5000 seats were available for sale every day in 2018 alone. Almost 9.3 million passengers flew the route that year. Virgin is also an airline with a fleet of more than 130 planes. It's now flying just one of these twice a day.

Virgin had previously cut its network to 10 per cent of its normal schedule as coronavirus travel restrictions obliterated demand. Its new reduced schedule takes effect from tomorrow, with all other flights through to June 15 cancelled.

UPDATE: 12 April
Qantas has announced that it's reduced its flying fleet to just three aircraft. According to CEO, Alan Joyce, the airline will essentially fly a Qantas 737, a Jetstar A320 and a QantasLink Dash 8 on a handful of primary routes until further notice.

For example, the once-crowded air corridor between Sydney and Melbourne, which typically sees around 50 Qantas and Jetstar flights each day, has been reduced to just five flights per week from 10 April.

I kept my promise. You keep your distance!

The University of Sydney has released a social distancing model today. The success or failure of Australia's coronavirus fight relies to a remarkable degree on just one thing. If 90% or more Australian stay home and comply with all social distancing directives we can end the COVID-19 pandemic in three months. The graph above really says it all.

The university’s research also reveals that up to 30% of people would normally fail to comply with Government directives. In other words, if we can convince just 20% more of the general population to comply it’ll all be over by July.

At the moment Australians have managed to cut social contact by about 50 per cent, which will flatten the peak of the pandemic by about two-thirds, according to Professor George Milne from the University of Western Australia.

https://www.sydney.edu.au/…/greater-social-distancing

Hopefully, the social distancing and hand hygiene messages are getting out there. A colleague in Europe sent me this image from Bergamo, Italy. The town's crematorium can no longer cope with the rising death toll. Military convoys are now moving corpses twice a week.

It's such a tragic image. I honestly thought twice about sharing it. However, if it encourages one more person to stay safe then it's making a difference. Stay safe. Stay Strong. We'll get through this together.

Sorry we're closed

I never thought I'd ever witness this day! Australia has officially closed its border to all visitors. The Prime Minister has just announced a travel ban will be placed on all non-residents and non-citizens coming to Australia.  Australia citizens will also need a special Government permit before they'll be permitted to leave the country. The new travel ban will be effective from 9pm on Friday. Just when you thought the headlines couldn't get any crazier.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-51957262

It's life, but not as we know it

Australia appears to be progressively going into lockdown this weekend. Today the Government announced that cruise ships coming from international ports are banned for 30 days. All international visitors arriving after midnight must now go into self-isolation for 14 days. People ignoring these quarantine requirement will face fines of up to $20,000. The police are already enforcing self-isolation where people have ignored medical professionals.

All gatherings of 500 people or more are banned. Major sports events and festivals have subsequently announced cancellations today, following on from a flurry of cancellations on Thursday and Friday. Courts have stopped taking new jury trials until further notice.

Panic buying has emptied more and more aisles at our local Supermarket. People seem to be preparing for increasingly restrictive edicts as infection rates rise nationally. Speculation is growing that non-essential businesses and schools will soon be ordered to close.

The Federal Government has already announced that additional restrictions, covering gatherings in enclosed spaces, are going to be considered by governments on Tuesday evening.

This evening the Federal Government said the Australian pandemic will probably run through our entire winter. This essentially means they’re anticipating significant disruption from now until October.

Something big is going on...

The economic data making headlines this morning is rather sober reading. Highlights so far include:

1. Chinese airlines report domestic traffic volumes are down 84.6%.
2. Wall Street dropped 9.5% overnight. It's now trading 28% below its recent peak.
3. The FTSE in London dropped 10.8% while markets in France and Germany dropped more than 12%.
4. The Australian dollar dropped another 2 cents overnight. It's now trading at a 12 year low.
5. The most profitable air routes for European carriers (i.e. trans-Atlantic) are closed for 30 days.
6. The Australian Government has announced a $17.5 billion stimulus package.

Australia's current toilet paper shortage pales in comparison. We certainly live in interesting times.

Panic buying mayhem

The world has simply gone mad.

As the Coronavirus pandemic unfolds Australian consumers have begun panic buying en masse. In the last few days, our local supermarket has run out of pasta, rice, noodles, flour, hand wash and toilet paper. The lack of toilet paper has subsequently resulted in a shortage of tissues and paper towels.

Garry’s joined the craze. He snapped up a six-pack of toilet rolls this evening. Securing them involved jostling with other shoppers who were mobbing a nervous shelf stacker valiantly trying to unload his stock cage.

UPDATE: 16 March
Last weekend's top ten panic buying favourites include all forms of mincemeat, carrots, tinned tomatoes, disinfectant, and clean wipes. It's insane what goods are now in short supply at supermarkets. Our local store has simply given up. It now posts notices telling people it can no longer guarantee the availability of items like hand sanitizer, paper towels, and toilet paper.

However, there are some positive news stories today. It's encouraging to see Woolworths supermarkets announce special shopping hours for the elderly and disabled. Before 8am, access to Woolworths stores will require proof of a concession card. This will ensure the most vulnerable in our community can buy essential goods before the panic buyers come through the doors.

UPDATE 18 March
Good luck with finding any fresh meat in our local Supermarket. The Butcher’s department has been completely bare for the last two days now.

Dam good news

Australia’s incredible Summer of extremes continues unabated. In recent days the Sydney basin has experienced its heaviest two-day rain spell since 1992 and soggiest four-day stint since 1990. Almost 400 millimetres of rain has fallen across the city since Friday, with more forecast later this week.

The image above was taken at an intersection near home on Saturday. I’ve lived in the area for almost 25 years. In all that time I can’t recall this particular location flooding so dramatically. The apartment has also sprang new leak. Annoyingly, it’s occurred in a location we successfully repaired 13 years ago.

However, the weekend’s extreme weather does have a silver lining. Sydney's dams have been filling rapidly after years of relentless decline. Warragamba Dam, the largest catchment area, is sitting at 62% capacity, up from 42% a week ago. Once the last of the run off is captured, Sydney's overall dam levels may ultimately exceed 80%. It’s incredible to think that a four-day deluge delivered the equivalent of Sydney’s annual water consumption.

The heavy rains have also brought renewed joy for firefighters. The giant Gospers Mountain fire - which has burnt more than 500,000 hectares this Summer - is among 30 fires formally declared extinguished.

UPDATE: 10 April

Sydney's dam level have continued to hover above 80% since February's drought-busting rainfall.  All water restrictions were finally lifted across the entire city on 1 March.

A bush fire season to end them all

Australia's record-breaking bush fire season continues unabated. Record after record continues to fall including the largest fire ever witnessed from a single ignition source in Australia.

This satellite image published by NSW Rural Fire Service on 1 January says it all really.  Smoke from the NSW bush fires completely covered New Zealand's South Island for several days.  It's a striking testament to the amount of vegetation that ultimately burned in the final days of 2019. Some of the smoke and ask rising from the fire's extraordinary pyro-convective thunderstorms has even reached the troposphere.

Our light home from Tasmania on 4 January passed over the massive Currowan fire. This blaze is burning out of control south of Sydney. It covers more than 264,000 hectares. Overnight the fire moved into the iconic Kangaroo Valley area.

As you can see from this image several bush fires are now so large they’re generating their own weather system including large cumulus thunderstorm clouds. This image was taken about 4000m and shows just one fire front covering almost 40kms.

How much of Australia’s East Coast has burned as of 14 January? This map in the New York Times says it all. It shows Brisbane in dark grey at the top, then Sydney midway down the coast before ending with Melbourne in the south. When you look at it remember that the distance between Brisbane and Melbourne is approx 2000km.

The areas shown in red have burned in the last 2 days, dark orange in the last 7 days and light orange since October 2019.  The nation hasn't seen anything on this scale in more than 30 years. When will it end? Bush fire season typically winds down in March (so we have another two months to go).