What's another million?

Two years ago, I posted about Australia’s population reaching 27 million people. Yesterday, the nation chalked up another million shortly after 6:00am. At least, that’s the tally according to the population clock at the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). The clock counts up based on a growth rate set on 1 July last year. This rate assumes that every minute and 15 seconds, another person is added to the Australian population.

This is the fastest million Australia has ever gained. Eight years ago, I was posting about the country reaching 25 million people, i.e. it then took six years to add another two million, by 2024. This more leisurely growth was impacted in part by the closure of the international border during the COVID pandemic.

According to ABS data released in March, Western Australia recorded the fastest population growth in the year to September 30, rising 2.2 per cent, or about 66,000 people. Queensland and Victoria both grew by 1.7 per cent, adding 97,300 and 122,000 people respectively. However, all this growth is being driven by migration. According to the ABS, only 1.48 babies per woman are being born, on average, well below the replacement fertility rate of 2.1.

If migration continues at its current pace, it’s estimated that Australia’s population will reach an impressive 30 million people by 2031. That’s almost twice the number that lived here when I first visited the country in 1998.

While the population clock is a statistically driven device, we'll be able to confirm its accuracy in a few months. The nation’s five-year census is scheduled to take place on 11 August this year. I wonder if we’ll see an unfavourable rounding error?

27 million and counting

The Australian Bureau of Statistics' (ABS) population clock ticked over 27 million around 3.45pm AEST on Wednesday, January 24. This incredible milestone reminded me of a similar headline in 2018. At the time, we were in Melbourne exhibiting at an annual trade show. Despite the late hour, I recall lying in bed watching the clock tick over 25 million. It's hard to fathom that, less than six years later, another two million people live in Australia.

The country's population has grown by an extraordinary 624,100 over the past 12 months. That's equivalent to adding the entire population of Tasmania (572,800) in just one year. This rapid growth easily exceeded the previous record of 442,500 set in 2009. 

Therefore, it's no surprise the nation is experiencing a massive housing shortage. The strain is present everywhere you look. The national rental vacancy rate was 1.09% in January, falling 0.04 percentage points over the month. In Sydney, the rate dropped to 1.20%, while the median price for rentals in the city hit $900 a week, up 20% on the previous year. Perth still maintains the lowest vacancy rate in the country at 0.76%. Meanwhile, rental affordability is at its lowest in at least 17 years.

The Federal Government is currently working with the States to build 1.2 million new homes over the next five years.  As part of this initiative, New South Wales is committed to building more than 380,000 homes, or 75,000 homes annually.  However, with high-interest rates and rapid inflation dogging the construction sector, it's no surprise this target isn't anywhere close to being met. 

Here at home, we're already feeling the impact of these market dynamics. Our apartment building is currently tendering for retrospective repairs to its fire protection infrastructure. Over the last two years, quotes for these works have increased by a third. We're now scrambling to find another $200,000 to get them underway. 

In the current economic climate, how can any first-home buyer afford to build, let alone buy, a home?  Affordable housing is a pressing national policy issue. It'll be interesting to see how bold politicians will be as they strive to solve the current crisis.

Free at last

Something extraordinary is unfolding in the state of New South Wales (NSW). The State Government has been progressively easing social distancing restrictions since 15 May. It looks increasingly likely they've timed the unwinding of our lockdown remarkably well.

According to today's newspaper, NSW has recorded zero locally-acquired coronavirus infections for a tenth day; and no new imported cases in the past 24 hours. Since May 27, the only infections reported in the state have been associated with overseas travellers under hotel quarantine.

Currently, every person entering the state from overseas is immediately transferred into a Government-funded mandatory quarantine facility. These are normally specially designated hotels and serviced apartments around Sydney.

These facilities are closely monitored. We have one near our apartment. Outside the building's main lobby is a permanent police presence while private security guards monitor the perimeter of the grounds. At first, the quarantine restrictions seemed rather harsh. However, today's news highlights how effectively they've contained new outbreaks of COVID-19. Two months ago nobody dared imagined NSW might find itself completely virus-free by mid-June.

New Zealand is currently well ahead of Australia. It's recorded no new COVID-19 cases for more than 14 days. The last person known to have contracted the virus domestically from an unknown source was diagnosed on 29 April and remained in quarantine until 18 May. Currently, it only has one active and confirmed case being monitored, an anonymous woman in Auckland who returned with the illness from overseas.

Scientists hope to declare New Zealand virus-free by 25 June i.e. 28 days of no new locally transmitted infections. This timeframe is the equivalent of two standard infection cycles. Authorities are increasingly optimistic that a trans-Tasman travel bubble could soon follow. This would allow Australians and New Zealanders to travel freely between both nations and provide a much-needed boost for the tourism and hospitality sectors of both nations.

UPDATE: 8 June 
New Zealand's last remaining virus patient has officially recovered. This means there are no active cases in the country.

UPDATE: 12 June
After a clear run for more than two weeks, a locally-acquired infection was reported in NSW today.  It's still out there!

Off the chart

I honesty thought weeks of unrelenting news headlines had finally lost their ability to shock me. That is until the New York Times published the following graph today.

A staggering 6.6 million people applied for unemployment benefits in the USA last week. In just two weeks, the Coronavirus pandemic has left nearly 10 million Americans out of work, more than in the worst months of the last recession. The data is literally “off the chart”.

It’s simply beyond comprehension. What normally takes months or quarters to happen in a recession is happening in a matter of weeks. I sincerely hope that a few months from now, these numbers are reversing just as dramatically.

UPDATE: 10 April

Numbers released on Thursday by the world's largest economy showed that 6.6 million American workers applied for unemployment benefits last week, on top of more than 10 million in the two weeks before that. That amounts to about 1 in 10 US workers losing their jobs in less than a month. This is the biggest and fastest pile-up of job losses since record-keeping began in 1948. California alone has averaged more than one million jobless claims each week.

$320 billion and counting

It’s been another extraordinary news day in Australia. Earlier today the Federal Government announced the nation’s largest-ever social security program. The program, worth $130 billion, will subsidise the wages of up to 6 million Australian for the next six months.

To put this figure in perspective, the Government will spend an amount equivalent to 20% of its annual budget between March and September on this one package. It’ll reach almost one in four Australians, and represents direct Government support for 50% of the nation’s labour force.

It’s the third stimulus package announced by the Government in as many weeks. To date, these announcements have totalled more than $320 billion in funding. During the Global Financial Crisis the Federal Government engaged in a rather “modest” $54 billion of stimulus spending.

Rumour has it the Government rushed to roll out wage subsidies after Australia’s unemployed ranks swelled by a million people last week. Anecdotal evidence suggests employers were encouraged to let staff go rapidly after generous unemployment benefits were announced ten days ago.

In more good news today, the increase in new Coronavirus cases appears to be slowing. Only 127 new cases have been confirmed in New South Wales since 8pm Sunday, taking the State’s total number to 1918.

This result comes after 174 new cases were announced on Sunday (from Saturday's numbers), and 212 the day before. NSW currently has the nation’s highest number of confirmed cases. This includes 26 patients in intensive care units, 13 of which are on ventilators. Mercifully, to date, only 18 deaths have been recorded nationwide.

With each passing day, the Coronavirus crisis is turning more and more of the world as we know it on its head.

Grounded!

As a regular traveller for business and pleasure, I've been watching the aviation sector's response to COVID-19 with interest. Some recent "never thought I'd see that" moments include:

1. Singapore Airlines is now flying 9 planes (out of 147 in its fleet).
2. Qantas now flies the giant A380 nonstop from Darwin to London. Yes - Darwin.
3. The only scheduled commercial flight between Australia and North America next week will be one daily United Airlines’ Boeing 787 between Sydney and San Francisco.
4. Air New Zealand now flies three times a week between Sydney and Auckland (normally its busiest international route) instead of 5 times a day.

This is the stuff of science fiction...

UPDATE: 9 April

Another extraordinary news headline tonight. Virgin Australia, Australia's second-largest airline, has suspended all domestic flights except for one daily Sydney to Melbourne return service. The flight will run daily except for on Saturdays.

To put this announcement in perspective, prior to the COVID-19 crisis, the Sydney to Melbourne route was the world's third busiest scheduled service. More than 5000 seats were available for sale every day in 2018 alone. Almost 9.3 million passengers flew the route that year. Virgin is also an airline with a fleet of more than 130 planes. It's now flying just one of these twice a day.

Virgin had previously cut its network to 10 per cent of its normal schedule as coronavirus travel restrictions obliterated demand. Its new reduced schedule takes effect from tomorrow, with all other flights through to June 15 cancelled.

UPDATE: 12 April
Qantas has announced that it's reduced its flying fleet to just three aircraft. According to CEO, Alan Joyce, the airline will essentially fly a Qantas 737, a Jetstar A320 and a QantasLink Dash 8 on a handful of primary routes until further notice.

For example, the once-crowded air corridor between Sydney and Melbourne, which typically sees around 50 Qantas and Jetstar flights each day, has been reduced to just five flights per week from 10 April.

I kept my promise. You keep your distance!

The University of Sydney has released a social distancing model today. The success or failure of Australia's coronavirus fight relies to a remarkable degree on just one thing. If 90% or more Australian stay home and comply with all social distancing directives we can end the COVID-19 pandemic in three months. The graph above really says it all.

The university’s research also reveals that up to 30% of people would normally fail to comply with Government directives. In other words, if we can convince just 20% more of the general population to comply it’ll all be over by July.

At the moment Australians have managed to cut social contact by about 50 per cent, which will flatten the peak of the pandemic by about two-thirds, according to Professor George Milne from the University of Western Australia.

https://www.sydney.edu.au/…/greater-social-distancing

Hopefully, the social distancing and hand hygiene messages are getting out there. A colleague in Europe sent me this image from Bergamo, Italy. The town's crematorium can no longer cope with the rising death toll. Military convoys are now moving corpses twice a week.

It's such a tragic image. I honestly thought twice about sharing it. However, if it encourages one more person to stay safe then it's making a difference. Stay safe. Stay Strong. We'll get through this together.

Something big is going on...

The economic data making headlines this morning is rather sober reading. Highlights so far include:

1. Chinese airlines report domestic traffic volumes are down 84.6%.
2. Wall Street dropped 9.5% overnight. It's now trading 28% below its recent peak.
3. The FTSE in London dropped 10.8% while markets in France and Germany dropped more than 12%.
4. The Australian dollar dropped another 2 cents overnight. It's now trading at a 12 year low.
5. The most profitable air routes for European carriers (i.e. trans-Atlantic) are closed for 30 days.
6. The Australian Government has announced a $17.5 billion stimulus package.

Australia's current toilet paper shortage pales in comparison. We certainly live in interesting times.

A bush fire season to end them all

Australia's record-breaking bush fire season continues unabated. Record after record continues to fall including the largest fire ever witnessed from a single ignition source in Australia.

This satellite image published by NSW Rural Fire Service on 1 January says it all really.  Smoke from the NSW bush fires completely covered New Zealand's South Island for several days.  It's a striking testament to the amount of vegetation that ultimately burned in the final days of 2019. Some of the smoke and ask rising from the fire's extraordinary pyro-convective thunderstorms has even reached the troposphere.

Our light home from Tasmania on 4 January passed over the massive Currowan fire. This blaze is burning out of control south of Sydney. It covers more than 264,000 hectares. Overnight the fire moved into the iconic Kangaroo Valley area.

As you can see from this image several bush fires are now so large they’re generating their own weather system including large cumulus thunderstorm clouds. This image was taken about 4000m and shows just one fire front covering almost 40kms.

How much of Australia’s East Coast has burned as of 14 January? This map in the New York Times says it all. It shows Brisbane in dark grey at the top, then Sydney midway down the coast before ending with Melbourne in the south. When you look at it remember that the distance between Brisbane and Melbourne is approx 2000km.

The areas shown in red have burned in the last 2 days, dark orange in the last 7 days and light orange since October 2019.  The nation hasn't seen anything on this scale in more than 30 years. When will it end? Bush fire season typically winds down in March (so we have another two months to go).

You wouldn't read about it

Today's paper made for an interesting read. Aside from the regular current affairs stories there was plenty of trivia to paint an interesting picture of life in the UK.

They're everywhere, except Scotland
In June 2005, the UK's population passed 60 million for the first time. More than 50 million of these people live in England, 5 million live in Scotland, 3 million in Wales and the remainder in Northern Ireland. This means England makes up about 65% of the UK's land mass, but supports almost 84% of its population.

More than a quarter of a million people moved out of London last year. However, the city's net population increased by 116,000 thanks to a steady influx of migrants. London's population is now more than 7.5 million. There are days when I wonder if they're all trying to get into the same tube carriage as me.

Talking of commuting. I read today that people in my neighbourhood travel an average of 9km to work every day. The national average is 15km. A quick calculation shows my daily commute to be about 12km door to door.

The English love their football
Today's paper carried a tragic story about a teenage soldier who chose suicide rather than face an assignment in Iraq. A throwaway line, buried deep in the story, left me stunned. The boy's family asked that friends wear Chelsea football shirts to the funeral. Apparently, the entire family changed it's name by deed poll several years ago in honour of the Chelsea football club. Anyone interested in becoming a Swan in honour of Sydney's AFL champions?

A cardboard box looks tempting
The average house price in London increased by £40,000 last year (A$96,000). Today's paper revealed that properties in the fancier parts of Central London now change hands at £2,800-£3000 a sq ft. Our flat is 1247 sq ft (116 sq metres). If it were an inner city property it would be worth a staggering £3.7 million!

This made me curious, so I did a little research on property in our neighbourhood. The average three-bedroom flat in our area is selling for £627,466 (A$1.5 million). Over the last five years, house prices grew 71.1%. However, this is only about 2/3 the rate of growth reported nationally over the same period.

It's small consolation to learn that the average price in the area is £371,685 (A$890,000). This is mainly because most properties in the area are only one or two-bedroom households. Not surprisingly, today's paper says that London rents are expected to increase 7% this year and a further 3% next year.

Meet the locals, they're not from here
While checking facts for this post, I discovered that 22% of people in our neighbourhood are migrants. The national average is 12%. Garry and I are in good company. This week's Economist reports that nearly 600,000 people migrated to the UK from the EU's newest Eastern European member states between May 2004 and June 2006. This population movement is the largest single wave of immigration in British history. This rings true for me. I've certainly noticed a wide variety of languages being spoken on the streets of London every day. This really is a cosmopolitan city.

Finally, one last piece of triva. Work permits, the visa system I entered the country on, were introduced in 1962. Permits were the Government's response to growing fears about large-scale immigration. It seems that 1962 was the last time Britain saw immigration on the scale it's experiencing now. We live in interesting times.