What's another million?

Two years ago, I posted about Australia’s population reaching 27 million people. Yesterday, the nation chalked up another million shortly after 6:00am. At least, that’s the tally according to the population clock at the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). The clock counts up based on a growth rate set on 1 July last year. This rate assumes that every minute and 15 seconds, another person is added to the Australian population.

This is the fastest million Australia has ever gained. Eight years ago, I was posting about the country reaching 25 million people, i.e. it then took six years to add another two million, by 2024. This more leisurely growth was impacted in part by the closure of the international border during the COVID pandemic.

According to ABS data released in March, Western Australia recorded the fastest population growth in the year to September 30, rising 2.2 per cent, or about 66,000 people. Queensland and Victoria both grew by 1.7 per cent, adding 97,300 and 122,000 people respectively. However, all this growth is being driven by migration. According to the ABS, only 1.48 babies per woman are being born, on average, well below the replacement fertility rate of 2.1.

If migration continues at its current pace, it’s estimated that Australia’s population will reach an impressive 30 million people by 2031. That’s almost twice the number that lived here when I first visited the country in 1998.

While the population clock is a statistically driven device, we'll be able to confirm its accuracy in a few months. The nation’s five-year census is scheduled to take place on 11 August this year. I wonder if we’ll see an unfavourable rounding error?