Seeking a new direction

Is Australia's next coronavirus crisis just around the corner? A battle with public complacency looks like it's become the new front line. This handy graph encapsulates the challenge ahead.

The Sydney Morning Herald noted today that mobility data from Apple shows increasing numbers of people searching for directions by road, foot and public transport, compared to the first weeks of Australia's strict "stay at home" instructions.

At the start of April, weekday searches for road directions in Sydney averaged about 54 per cent of the normal baseline level. The week after Easter it averaged about 61 per cent and last week it was averaging 64.2 per cent, with a spike on Thursday of 69.9 per cent amid a week of sunshine and warm temperatures. That was the highest number since March 20.

Sadly the lack of social distancing etiquette has grown worse at our local supermarket. Garry and I dropped in on Friday evening to grab a few supplies. The first thing we noticed was the staff had given up counting shoppers entering the store. Coles had previously announced it was limiting store patronage to ensure social distancing was maintained. For the last ten days, the number of shoppers has been religiously counted in and out of the store.

On Friday the building was heaving with people. Dozens were queuing to use the checkouts. Aisles were crowded. People were standing around chatting. Few appeared to be making any attempt to physically separate themselves from others.

We have a young demographic in our area including a lot of international students. As a result, it's tempting to stereotype the crowd. I certainly considered myself all but bulletproof at a younger age. How do you help others truly comprehend the economic sacrifice and financial hardship made by millions to ensure their health? I don't envy our Government.

Four more weeks

It’s official. Australians are in for another four weeks of partial lockdown. The continued restrictions reflect growing confidence that the nation is successfully containing COVID-19. The latest graph shows an increasingly stable, and reassuringly low, level of new cases being reported daily (currently averaging below 50 new cases per day).

Some commentators are going so far as to suggest we’re on track for domestic elimination of the virus. Personally, I think that’s wishful thinking. I went to the supermarket last night. The experience was incredibly disappointing. At least a third of shoppers demonstrated absolutely no interest in practising social distancing. This was in stark contrast to active avoidance behaviours I’d witnessed only weeks ago.

This shopping experience leaves me in no doubt that we’ll continue to see sporadic outbreaks. Too many people seem to have very little sense of just how virulent this virus is. I’ve read several stories where positively diagnosed people believe that their only credible infection source was the supermarket.

These reports include an elderly Queensland man who later died. His only reported activity outside the home was a single trip to the supermarket. Today I read about a young UK journalist who, over a 14 day period, only left his home to visit the supermarket. He described his subsequent illness as far more life-threatening than the flu. His experience included a late-night paramedic call out that left him genuinely fearing for his life.

UPDATE: 24 April

Australia recorded only four new cases of coronavirus in the 24 hours to 4pm on Wednesday. This included two in NSW and one each in South Australia and Tasmania. The last time new cases were reported in single digits was 8 March.

Bending the curve

Some encouraging COVID-19 graphs have been published today. In NSW, there were 49 new confirmed cases in the 24 hours to 8pm on April 9. While that was 11 more cases than the previous 24 hours, the number of tests increased by more than 500. It's encouraging that higher test rates aren't finding proportionately more cases at this early stage.

On a separate note, NSW Police can now issue a $5000 on-the-spot fine for spitting or coughing on health workers or police officers. These new powers were introduced after gutless attacks on front line workers. Pharmacists, supermarket managers and police officers have all been spat on by disgruntled people in recent days.

Likewise, anyone caught without a good reason for being away from home is also subject to a $1000 fine. On Thursday NSW Police handed out 45 fines for breaching the Public Health Act. Several people have now received multiple fines. One of those fines was given to NSW Arts Minister Don Harwin who was caught sneaking off to his holiday home up the coast.

Mission impossible

I got up early to visit the Supermarket. Oh, the joy of joys! We finally have some basic essentials. I never thought I’d be so happy to see a bag of plain flour again.

My raid was carefully planned the night before. Garry helpfully wrote me a shopping list as I was off to bed.  His parting words were, "Here's a list just in case you wake up early and want to go for a walk..."  I got the message.

Off the chart

I honesty thought weeks of unrelenting news headlines had finally lost their ability to shock me. That is until the New York Times published the following graph today.

A staggering 6.6 million people applied for unemployment benefits in the USA last week. In just two weeks, the Coronavirus pandemic has left nearly 10 million Americans out of work, more than in the worst months of the last recession. The data is literally “off the chart”.

It’s simply beyond comprehension. What normally takes months or quarters to happen in a recession is happening in a matter of weeks. I sincerely hope that a few months from now, these numbers are reversing just as dramatically.

UPDATE: 10 April

Numbers released on Thursday by the world's largest economy showed that 6.6 million American workers applied for unemployment benefits last week, on top of more than 10 million in the two weeks before that. That amounts to about 1 in 10 US workers losing their jobs in less than a month. This is the biggest and fastest pile-up of job losses since record-keeping began in 1948. California alone has averaged more than one million jobless claims each week.

$320 billion and counting

It’s been another extraordinary news day in Australia. Earlier today the Federal Government announced the nation’s largest-ever social security program. The program, worth $130 billion, will subsidise the wages of up to 6 million Australian for the next six months.

To put this figure in perspective, the Government will spend an amount equivalent to 20% of its annual budget between March and September on this one package. It’ll reach almost one in four Australians, and represents direct Government support for 50% of the nation’s labour force.

It’s the third stimulus package announced by the Government in as many weeks. To date, these announcements have totalled more than $320 billion in funding. During the Global Financial Crisis the Federal Government engaged in a rather “modest” $54 billion of stimulus spending.

Rumour has it the Government rushed to roll out wage subsidies after Australia’s unemployed ranks swelled by a million people last week. Anecdotal evidence suggests employers were encouraged to let staff go rapidly after generous unemployment benefits were announced ten days ago.

In more good news today, the increase in new Coronavirus cases appears to be slowing. Only 127 new cases have been confirmed in New South Wales since 8pm Sunday, taking the State’s total number to 1918.

This result comes after 174 new cases were announced on Sunday (from Saturday's numbers), and 212 the day before. NSW currently has the nation’s highest number of confirmed cases. This includes 26 patients in intensive care units, 13 of which are on ventilators. Mercifully, to date, only 18 deaths have been recorded nationwide.

With each passing day, the Coronavirus crisis is turning more and more of the world as we know it on its head.

Grounded!

As a regular traveller for business and pleasure, I've been watching the aviation sector's response to COVID-19 with interest. Some recent "never thought I'd see that" moments include:

1. Singapore Airlines is now flying 9 planes (out of 147 in its fleet).
2. Qantas now flies the giant A380 nonstop from Darwin to London. Yes - Darwin.
3. The only scheduled commercial flight between Australia and North America next week will be one daily United Airlines’ Boeing 787 between Sydney and San Francisco.
4. Air New Zealand now flies three times a week between Sydney and Auckland (normally its busiest international route) instead of 5 times a day.

This is the stuff of science fiction...

UPDATE: 9 April

Another extraordinary news headline tonight. Virgin Australia, Australia's second-largest airline, has suspended all domestic flights except for one daily Sydney to Melbourne return service. The flight will run daily except for on Saturdays.

To put this announcement in perspective, prior to the COVID-19 crisis, the Sydney to Melbourne route was the world's third busiest scheduled service. More than 5000 seats were available for sale every day in 2018 alone. Almost 9.3 million passengers flew the route that year. Virgin is also an airline with a fleet of more than 130 planes. It's now flying just one of these twice a day.

Virgin had previously cut its network to 10 per cent of its normal schedule as coronavirus travel restrictions obliterated demand. Its new reduced schedule takes effect from tomorrow, with all other flights through to June 15 cancelled.

UPDATE: 12 April
Qantas has announced that it's reduced its flying fleet to just three aircraft. According to CEO, Alan Joyce, the airline will essentially fly a Qantas 737, a Jetstar A320 and a QantasLink Dash 8 on a handful of primary routes until further notice.

For example, the once-crowded air corridor between Sydney and Melbourne, which typically sees around 50 Qantas and Jetstar flights each day, has been reduced to just five flights per week from 10 April.

I kept my promise. You keep your distance!

The University of Sydney has released a social distancing model today. The success or failure of Australia's coronavirus fight relies to a remarkable degree on just one thing. If 90% or more Australian stay home and comply with all social distancing directives we can end the COVID-19 pandemic in three months. The graph above really says it all.

The university’s research also reveals that up to 30% of people would normally fail to comply with Government directives. In other words, if we can convince just 20% more of the general population to comply it’ll all be over by July.

At the moment Australians have managed to cut social contact by about 50 per cent, which will flatten the peak of the pandemic by about two-thirds, according to Professor George Milne from the University of Western Australia.

https://www.sydney.edu.au/…/greater-social-distancing

Hopefully, the social distancing and hand hygiene messages are getting out there. A colleague in Europe sent me this image from Bergamo, Italy. The town's crematorium can no longer cope with the rising death toll. Military convoys are now moving corpses twice a week.

It's such a tragic image. I honestly thought twice about sharing it. However, if it encourages one more person to stay safe then it's making a difference. Stay safe. Stay Strong. We'll get through this together.

Sorry we're closed

I never thought I'd ever witness this day! Australia has officially closed its border to all visitors. The Prime Minister has just announced a travel ban will be placed on all non-residents and non-citizens coming to Australia.  Australia citizens will also need a special Government permit before they'll be permitted to leave the country. The new travel ban will be effective from 9pm on Friday. Just when you thought the headlines couldn't get any crazier.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-51957262

It's life, but not as we know it

Australia appears to be progressively going into lockdown this weekend. Today the Government announced that cruise ships coming from international ports are banned for 30 days. All international visitors arriving after midnight must now go into self-isolation for 14 days. People ignoring these quarantine requirement will face fines of up to $20,000. The police are already enforcing self-isolation where people have ignored medical professionals.

All gatherings of 500 people or more are banned. Major sports events and festivals have subsequently announced cancellations today, following on from a flurry of cancellations on Thursday and Friday. Courts have stopped taking new jury trials until further notice.

Panic buying has emptied more and more aisles at our local Supermarket. People seem to be preparing for increasingly restrictive edicts as infection rates rise nationally. Speculation is growing that non-essential businesses and schools will soon be ordered to close.

The Federal Government has already announced that additional restrictions, covering gatherings in enclosed spaces, are going to be considered by governments on Tuesday evening.

This evening the Federal Government said the Australian pandemic will probably run through our entire winter. This essentially means they’re anticipating significant disruption from now until October.

Something big is going on...

The economic data making headlines this morning is rather sober reading. Highlights so far include:

1. Chinese airlines report domestic traffic volumes are down 84.6%.
2. Wall Street dropped 9.5% overnight. It's now trading 28% below its recent peak.
3. The FTSE in London dropped 10.8% while markets in France and Germany dropped more than 12%.
4. The Australian dollar dropped another 2 cents overnight. It's now trading at a 12 year low.
5. The most profitable air routes for European carriers (i.e. trans-Atlantic) are closed for 30 days.
6. The Australian Government has announced a $17.5 billion stimulus package.

Australia's current toilet paper shortage pales in comparison. We certainly live in interesting times.

Our new housemate

We've got a new housemate. This week we discovered a baby Asian House Gecko living in our bathroom. It's been reappearing after dark for the last two nights.

We've known for some time there’s a gecko colony on our northern balcony. Garry's heard their loud and somewhat distinctive call echoing regularly from the main planter box. It's incredible to think they're happy doing their thing eight floors above street level.

However, this week's visitor is the first we've spotted in the flesh. Native to South and Southeast Asia these small geckos were originally tree dwellers but, since arriving in the 1960s, they’ve been thriving inside Australian homes and buildings.

Geckos were first spotted in Darwin. Since then they’ve progressively made their way across the Australian continent. Today you can find them in West Australia, the Northern Territory, Queensland and now as far south as Sydney.

Our little friend will eventually grow as long as 11cms. For now, he's an adorable 3cms.

Panic buying mayhem

The world has simply gone mad.

As the Coronavirus pandemic unfolds Australian consumers have begun panic buying en masse. In the last few days, our local supermarket has run out of pasta, rice, noodles, flour, hand wash and toilet paper. The lack of toilet paper has subsequently resulted in a shortage of tissues and paper towels.

Garry’s joined the craze. He snapped up a six-pack of toilet rolls this evening. Securing them involved jostling with other shoppers who were mobbing a nervous shelf stacker valiantly trying to unload his stock cage.

UPDATE: 16 March
Last weekend's top ten panic buying favourites include all forms of mincemeat, carrots, tinned tomatoes, disinfectant, and clean wipes. It's insane what goods are now in short supply at supermarkets. Our local store has simply given up. It now posts notices telling people it can no longer guarantee the availability of items like hand sanitizer, paper towels, and toilet paper.

However, there are some positive news stories today. It's encouraging to see Woolworths supermarkets announce special shopping hours for the elderly and disabled. Before 8am, access to Woolworths stores will require proof of a concession card. This will ensure the most vulnerable in our community can buy essential goods before the panic buyers come through the doors.

UPDATE 18 March
Good luck with finding any fresh meat in our local Supermarket. The Butcher’s department has been completely bare for the last two days now.

Going viral

We just returned from Melbourne, where we exhibited at the industry’s annual Toy Fair. What a strange week it has been! The coronavirus virus that first hit the news last December dominated headlines all week, and its impact was clear.

For example, the All Ordinaries Index retreated from its record high set on 20 February. It’s lost more than 15% of its value in the last two weeks. Fortuitously, Garry and I had already begun converting our Super balances to cash. We’re shifting our accounts to a new firm and thus had to liquidate our investments. The timing couldn’t been better had we planned it. 

At the show several attendees refused to shake my hand, and every Chinese exhibitor had cancelled their stand. They were forced to withdraw from the show after travel restrictions from China were introduced by the Federal Government on 1 February.

As a result, our stand ended up in a wide-open space rather than an evenly framed aisle. I took advantage of the unexpected feature wall and transformed it into a billboard for Bigjigs, one of our newest brands. This made our recently expanded custom-built stand look better than ever.

This isn’t the first time we’ve seen the coronavirus impacting a trade show. Last month while at Spielwarenmesse, the international toy fair in Nuremberg, we witnessed people avoiding Hall 11. This is where the Chinese factories normally exhibit. Garry and I passed through the hall on our way to a meeting elsewhere. The normally bustling venue was devoid of attendees, leaving forlorn Chinese exhibitors milling around with little to do.

I’m also proud to report that we've secured a Toy of the Year award for one of our top-selling products. It’s the fifth industry award we’ve secured in the last five years, and our first Australian Toy Association product award.

Five years and counting

We’ve just finished another Sydney Gift Fair trade show out at Homebush. This is the second time we have used a new, smaller custom-built stand for this event. It’s a mere 15 sqm. Previously, we exhibited using a 48 sqm stand, before reducing it to 27 sqm in 2018.

Once again, the smaller space looked great and worked just fine. Since 2016 we’ve seen the value of orders at this event declining each year. More and more retailers are using it as a temporary showroom to see what’s new, rather than restocking their shelves. As a result, we simply can’t justify the cost of a larger, more expensive stand.

The show also marked the fifth anniversary of the first time we saw Artiwood. How quickly time has flown! In February 2015, we visited the Sydney Gift Fair to meet the company’s founding owner and review his business. We ultimately bought it four months later. The rest, as they say, is history.

Dam good news

Australia’s incredible Summer of extremes continues unabated. In recent days the Sydney basin has experienced its heaviest two-day rain spell since 1992 and soggiest four-day stint since 1990. Almost 400 millimetres of rain has fallen across the city since Friday, with more forecast later this week.

The image above was taken at an intersection near home on Saturday. I’ve lived in the area for almost 25 years. In all that time I can’t recall this particular location flooding so dramatically. The apartment has also sprang new leak. Annoyingly, it’s occurred in a location we successfully repaired 13 years ago.

However, the weekend’s extreme weather does have a silver lining. Sydney's dams have been filling rapidly after years of relentless decline. Warragamba Dam, the largest catchment area, is sitting at 62% capacity, up from 42% a week ago. Once the last of the run off is captured, Sydney's overall dam levels may ultimately exceed 80%. It’s incredible to think that a four-day deluge delivered the equivalent of Sydney’s annual water consumption.

The heavy rains have also brought renewed joy for firefighters. The giant Gospers Mountain fire - which has burnt more than 500,000 hectares this Summer - is among 30 fires formally declared extinguished.

UPDATE: 10 April

Sydney's dam level have continued to hover above 80% since February's drought-busting rainfall.  All water restrictions were finally lifted across the entire city on 1 March.

When in Rome...

For the entire time Garry and I lived in London we never indulged in a High Tea. This quintessentially British tradition was conceived by high society in the Victorian era. At the time most people ate a hearty breakfast and often didn’t dine again until the evening.

The Victorians began taking afternoon tea to bridge the gap. By the end of the century, afternoon tea had become a daily ritual for the upper classes, though it had spread in various forms through much of the rest of society too.

In the more privileged households the ladies would dress for the occasion whether at home or out in public, and the selection of goodies on the tea tray become equally elaborate. Pastries, scones, clotted cream, delicate cakes, and the ubiquitous thinly sliced cucumber sandwiches.

While in London last month we took time out one Sunday afternoon to treat ourselves and a long-time friend to a decadent High Tea. I booked us into the ornately decorated Oscar Wilde Lounge at the Café Royal in Piccadilly Circus. The afternoon was totally over the top but heaps of fun.

We spent almost four hours drinking champagne and nibbling on canapes and petit cakes while being entertained by a pianist on a grand piano. Our waiter even put on a show for us. Our empty flutes were regularly topped up with an outstretched pouring ritual that I’m honestly not game to try at home.

The Ring of Kerry

The Ring of Kerry is one of Ireland’s most famous, and picturesque, scenic drives. It’s a circular route around the Iveragh Peninsula in southwest Ireland’s County Kerry. The route is more than 179km and takes in rugged and verdant coastal landscapes and rural seaside villages. We were lucky enough to complete the circuit on a day largely filled with blue skies and sunshine.

Our first stop was Ross Castle on outskirts of Killarney. The castle was closed for winter but its lakeside location was still ideal for a scenic walk. From there we went on to the Gap of Dunloe. We were able to drive deep into this scenic valley without incident. The road is incredibly narrow, with very limited passing options. It’s definitely not a place to drive in Summer when the crowds are out in force.

The views are genuinely breath-taking and simply become better and better as you venture further into the valley. Around every corner is another stunning Instagram worth scene. We gave ourselves plenty of time to enjoy this genuinely beautiful piece of Ireland before venturing on to Rossbeigh beach. 

Our next highlight was Cahergall Fort. This restored, ancient stone structure looks rather uninspiring from the road. However, once inside the complex is truly remarkable. A series of internal steps gave us access onto the rim of its broad stone walls. The view atop the wall was magnificent. It spread out across the fields and on to the nearby coast. The day we visited; we were lucky enough to experience the fort alone for almost half an hour.

We then stopped briefly at Waterville. This seaside village was once a favourite Summer haunt for Charlie Chaplin. He remains immortalised by a life-size bronze statue on the waterfront. It then on to Com An Chiste Lookout. Here we stopped to admire a stunning view across the southern coast of Ireland. That’s the view in this post’s opening image.

We then ventured on to Kenmare where we stopped for the night. We booked ourselves into the Brook Lane Hotel, a cosy boutique establishment on the edge of town. At first, we thought we’d based ourselves too far from the village’s quaint town centre for exploratory stroll. However, we discovered a local walking path nearby that curved its way along peaceful hedgerows directly into town. 

The following morning we completed the Ring of Kerry. As we traced our way back to Killarney we stopped to take in scenic spots in the Killarney National Park including Moll’s Gap, Ladies View and Torc Waterfall. I’m glad we stopped overnight at Kenmare as it gave us more time to enjoy the national park at a leisurely pace.

We then finished our final day in Ireland with a visit to Blarney Castle, home of the famous Blarney Stone. We had the almost entire castle to ourselves. We later realised how lucky we were. We encountered queue signs on the entry path advising visitors of a two-hour wait time. The castle is clearly more popular in Summer.

I can proudly say I’ve now kissed the Blarney Stone. It’s said that all who do so are granted a gift of the gab (that is great eloquence and skilful flattery). Bill Clinton once did the same thing, so I count myself in good company. 

Perhaps only disappointing aspect of our visit were the “helpful” service staff standing around the stone. They’ve clearly spent plenty of time assisting American tourists and thus blatantly touted for a tip. It was only place in Ireland where we witnessed such crass behaviour. Everywhere else the people we encountered were warm, generous and kind, and never asked for anything in return.

We spent our final night at the Cork Airport hotel. This made it easy to drop off our rental car that evening and then check-in for an early morning flight the next day. This proved a sage decision. We woke to find the airport and its surrounding dusted by snow. We later heard that there had been traffic delays for many getting to the airport.

Adare and Dingle

Our next stop in Ireland included a brief afternoon wandering the streets of Galway, followed by a side trip to the Cliffs of Moher while on our way to Adare for the night.  I worked for an Irish CEO for almost a decade who hailed from Galway.  As a result, I’ve always been curious to see her home town. We spent a couple of hours wandering through Galway's old town and relatively new cathedral.

The Cliffs of Moher are considered one of Ireland top sights.  These dramatic cliffs offer a stunning view of the nation’s rugged Atlantic coast.  They extend for more than 14 km and soar to a height of more than 214 metres.  We stopped for an hour to climb a series of paved paths and stairways that took as far as the Victorian folly, O’Brien’s Tower.

It was then on to Adare, a quaint, picturesque village south of Limerick.  The village offers a surprising array of sights.  This includes Desmond Castle, a ruin on the north bank of the Maigue, Adare Manor on the river’s southern flank and two spectacular churches; the Augustinian Priory and Trinitarian Abbey.

The Priory dates back to 1316, and the Abbey’s order of monks, to 1230.  We stayed at the Dunraven Arms. The hotel is said to be one of the oldest establishments in Ireland. It dates back to the Eighteenth Century. Sadly, it proved to be the least impressive place we stayed at in Ireland.

From Adare, it was on to the Dingle Peninsula.  We stopped in the picturesque harbour village of Dingle for a pub lunch before making our way past Inch Beach and on to Killarney.  While on our way to Dingle, we drove across the Connor Pass, Ireland’s highest roadway. However, low cloud shrouded the mountain top and we missed most of the view.  The road was still incredibly dramatic.  It often narrowed to a single lane with little more than a stone wall to guide us through the dense fog.

Follow this link to read about our two-day road trip around Ireland's world-renowned Ring of Kerry tour circuit.